![]() ![]() To find the probability of getting specific events in a row, multiply together the chance of getting each event.50/50 chances stop being even when viewed in strings.We flip from overpessimism to unguided optimism and back.” We make damaging decisions in business and in driving a car. ![]() We buy insurance we don’t need and we fail to insure the risks we should. ![]() “In flouting, or failing to grasp, the laws of chance we hurt ourselves in many ways.“Life is a school of probability.” - Walter Bagehot.“It is truth very certain that, when it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to follow what is most probable.” - Rene Descartes.“A reasonable probability is the only certainty.” - E.“He who has heard the same thing told by 12,000 eye-witnesses has only 12,000 probabilities, which are equal to one strong probability, which is far from certainty.” - Voltaire.He weaves in bits of humor and literature to explain the different concepts with real-life examples of coin tosses, card games, roulette, and dice that should help you avoid expensive mistakes. Darrell Huff offers an introduction to the theory of probability that you can find in all aspects of life. ![]()
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